Demand is high but inventory is low
Written by NAHB, March 12, 2018 07:58am
Builder testifies on ways to improve how OSHA operates.
Written by NAHB, March 06, 2018 07:18am
Total housing starts posted strong gains in January, up almost 10% to a 1.33 million seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Written by NAHB, March 01, 2018 07:12am
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January Starts, Sales Tell Different Stories
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Total housing starts posted strong gains in January, up almost 10% to a 1.33 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Single-family construction recorded a nearly 4% rise in January, with the three-month moving average near a post-recession high. The increases in construction activity mirror solid levels for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which registered a level of 72 in February — near a two-decade high. The volatile multifamily data was up 24% in January.
Contracts for sales of newly built single-family homes disappointed in January, declining by almost 8%. However, these numbers were at odds with other reports, including ongoing housing price growth and individual builder reports of sales. But the drop matched pending sales of existing homes, which dropped 4.7 in January. Though the January new home sales data will likely be revised up, current inventory of new, ready-to-occupy homes available for sale remains tight.
The median size of new homes continues to decline as the market broadens to include more entry-level homes. The townhouse market grew 7% in 2017, while at the upper end, custom homes saw a more modest growth rate of 2%. The home building and remodeling sectors should continue to expand overall in 2018, fueled by healthy labor conditions and wage gains. The improving economy and increases in income will largely help to offset the hindrance of higher interest rates on housing demand.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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It can be described in one word.
Written by NAHB, February 19, 2018 01:05pm
Last week's labor market report, ostensibly showing positive news in the form of 2.9% year-over-year gains for earnings, increased volatility for stock prices as investors reassessed their outlook for market risk and interest rates.
Written by NAHB, February 15, 2018 07:09am
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Rising Rates, Higher Wages: A Counterbalance on Affordability
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Last week's labor market report, ostensibly showing positive news in the form of 2.9% year-over-year gains for earnings, increased volatility for stock prices as investors reassessed their outlook for market risk and interest rates. Wage gains are good news for rental and for-sale housing demand, but income growth without improvements for worker productivity can be inflationary.
While inflation remains tame, it is showing signs of an increase. For example, the three-month moving average annual change of core CPI is now at 2.9%, the highest since August 2011. As a result, interest rates have increased significantly over the last month, with the 10-year Treasury bond near 2.9%. Higher rates for the 10-year Treasury will push up mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now averaging above 4.3%.
Rising rates increase the cost of buying a home with a mortgage. However, higher incomes are particularly helpful for home buyers saving for a downpayment and help counter the negative effect of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability. This environment can yield overall positive outcomes for housing, provided the wage gains are accompanied by improvement for productivity in the post-tax reform economy.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Measure contains key NAHB housing tax priorities.
Written by NAHB, February 12, 2018 08:06am
The Weekly News Digest of NAHB
Written by NAHB, January 29, 2018 07:39am
Builder confidence reached a nearly 19-year high at the end of 2017, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Written by NAHB, January 19, 2018 06:46am
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Housing's Strong Finish in 2017
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Builder confidence reached a nearly 19-year high at the end of 2017, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. While the first reading of 2018 wasn't quite as high, a positive level of 72 indicates a solid amount of continued optimism. Additionally, the Remodeling Market Index showed strength, coming in at a level of 60 and marking its 19th consecutive quarter in positive territory.
While housing starts dipped slightly in December, the 2017 totals for single-family construction were positive — nearly 9% above the 2016 totals. Multifamily starts, however, were down almost 10% as that market finds a balance between supply and demand. NAHB expects single-family starts to increase nearly 5% in 2018, while multifamily starts will decline slightly.
A recent NAHB survey of builders identified the top concerns for the industry. Building material prices and labor costs/availability were cited by 84% of builders as significant problems they expect to face in 2018. The next most commonly cited challenge was the cost/availability of lots, referenced by 62% of builders. Despite these obstacles, the industry continues to expand, adding 86,400 jobs over the last year as housing demand continues to rise.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Confidence among builders at the end of 2017 reached its highest measure in more than 18 years. Much of that optimism is due to tight existing home inventory, a solid economy with low unemployment, and an improving policy environment that offers hope for reduced regulatory burdens.
Written by NAHB, January 05, 2018 07:50am
January 4, 2018
Builders Start the New Year Filled with Optimism
Confidence among builders at the end of 2017 reached its highest measure in more than 18 years. Much of that optimism is due to tight existing home inventory, a solid economy with low unemployment, and an improving policy environment that offers hope for reduced regulatory burdens.
Census estimates of home construction also helped fuel the rise in builder confidence. By November, single-family starts were up 9% on a year-to-date basis, and sales of new single-family homes had increased 17.5% from the month prior — reaching the fastest sales pace in more than 10 years. Growth for residential construction is expected to continue, as a growing share of new homes are being sold from the "not under construction" class.
However, supply-side headwinds will continue to hamper housing in 2018, as will the tight labor market and rising prices for materials. The Federal Reserve will continue to increase interest rates, which will slowly reduce housing affordability, though that impact will be offset by increases in after-tax income. Some markets — particularly high-tax/high-cost markets in coastal areas — will experience some negative effects due to tax law changes. But from a national perspective, single-family construction will continue to expand.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
Starts and Sales
New Home Sales Hit Post-Recession High in November
All regions of the U.S. reported growth, led by a 30% uptick in the Northeast.
Existing Sales Surge in November
Year-end rally leads to the most sales since December 2006.
Private Residential Spending on the Rise
Single-family construction spending increased to its highest annual rate in a decade.
Permit Volume Grows in Most States
State-by-state comparisons show Texas atop most lists of permits issued.
Strong Estimates for Single-Family Starts
The rise in starts aligns with increased builder confidence.
Industry Insights
Housing Market Primed to Expand in 2018
Builders enter year with high hopes for improved regulations.
Number of Hispanic Construction Business Owners Rises
Every age group saw growth between 2007 and 2012.
Homeownership Rate Increases
NAHB analysis shows more minorities are buying homes.
NAHB Economics Presentations to Attend at IBS
Several industry experts will offer analyses of what to expect in 2018.
Construction Trades Can Often Lead to Higher Paying Jobs
Study finds eight senior positions in home building typically filled by someone with trade experience.
Economic Indicators
Economic Growth Exceeds Potential in 3rd Quarter
It was the fastest growth rate since the first quarter of 2015.
Consumer Spending Up, Savings Rate Down
Disposable income rose for three consecutive months.
Housing Share of GDP Declined in 3rd Quarter
Home building and remodeling component held steady.
Home Prices Continue to Increase in October
Price appreciation continues to impact housing affordability.
After a mild 2016, economic growth gained momentum in 2017.
Written by NAHB, December 14, 2017 06:54am
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Housing's Growth Tempered by Tight Labor, Costly Materials
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After a mild 2016, economic growth gained momentum in 2017. New jobs continue to be produced and unemployment (4.1%) is low. While this is positive news for housing demand, the unceasingly tight labor market conditions mean increased competition among employers for a smaller number of available workers. This is one of the reasons the construction industry continues to see an elevated number of open jobs: 227,000 in October, near a post-recession high. It also implies additional wage growth in the year ahead.
Builders can also expect continued growth in the cost of building materials. Since the beginning of the year, OSB prices have jumped 30%, softwood lumber prices are up almost 15% and gypsum prices have increased almost 8%. Additional building material supply is needed as the home building sector grows. However, duties imposed on Canadian softwood lumber of almost 21% accomplish the opposite of what the industry and home buyers need. NAHB estimates that the tariff on lumber imports alone is responsible for a nearly 7% price increase and has already driven up the price of a new home by an average of $1,360.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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The latest economic news from NAHB
Written by NAHB, November 30, 2017 08:41am
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Rising Starts and Sales Indicate More Gains Ahead
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October was a good month for housing. Single-family and multifamily housing starts rose by almost 14%. Single-family starts (877,000) are at a post-recession high and have grown 8% on a year-to-date basis compared to last year.
And rising home sales indicate more gains are in store for residential construction. Existing home sales expanded 2% in October, while inventory fell for the 29th consecutive month to only a 4.4 months' supply. Newly built single-family homes sales rose 6% last month, recording its strongest reading in a decade.
At this sales pace, there is only a 4.9 months' supply of new homes available. Moreover, a rising share of new home sales is coming from homes that have not yet begun construction, pointing to additional gains for construction in the near term.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Written by NHAB, November 16, 2017 08:50am
Tax and Monetary Policy Impacts on Housing
Tax reform is the big debate in Washington, and the stakes are high. Certain components of the proposals would sideline and limit the mortgage interest and real estate tax deductions — two major factors in determining the costs and incentives of homeownership. Other elements of the proposals would provide reductions in small business and corporate tax rates and, due to NAHB advocacy efforts, protect the business interest deduction for real estate development firms.
Side-by-side, the Senate plan is much better for housing. It offers more generally favorable treatment for S Corps and LLCs due its rate schedule and more usable 17.4% pass-through business income deduction, while also protecting important affordable housing policies like the LIHTC and the tax-exempt bond program.
Change is also coming for monetary policy. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell has been nominated to replace Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, whose term ends in February. Powell is an excellent choice for the housing sector and will likely maintain the Fed's current approach to monetary policy with gradual interest rate increases and balance sheet reductions.
Given current market challenges — highlighted by recent reports concerning ongoing labor shortages, declining housing affordability and lagging single-family construction — tax reform and monetary policy should promote economic growth while recognizing the important role the housing industry plays in the overall economy.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
Written by NAHB, November 13, 2017 11:55am
After a slow start to the year, economic growth accelerated in the spring. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP growth stepped up to a 2.6% annual rate in the second quarter, a significant improvement over the 1.2% rate registered for the first three months of 2017. NAHB forecasts the economy's modest growth will continue over the near term.
Written by NAHB, August 09, 2017 05:08pm
Economic Growth Picks Up the Pace
After a slow start to the year, economic growth accelerated in the spring. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP growth stepped up to a 2.6% annual rate in the second quarter, a significant improvement over the 1.2% rate registered for the first three months of 2017. NAHB forecasts the economy's modest growth will continue over the near term.
The homeownership rate is finally showing signs of stabilizing after years of decline. Census Bureau data for the second quarter showed a homeownership rate of 63.7%, after reaching a cycle low of 62.9% during the second quarter of 2016. Moreover, the Census data also showed that for two consecutive quarters, the U.S. housing market has added more home owners than renters.
Demand for owner-occupied housing will depend on the future of the labor market, which continues to be tight. Over the last two months, the economy has added an estimated 440,000 jobs. The residential construction labor force continues to expand, but at a slow pace. In the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 188,300 jobs. However, the count of open, unfilled construction sector jobs increased in June to 225,000 — the highest count since September 2016.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
Industry Insights
Number of Open Construction Jobs Climbs
After declining in the previous month, unfilled jobs increased significantly in June.
Homeownership Rate Bottomed Out?
Census data show signs of stabilization after reaching a low point one year ago.
Pending Sales Break Losing Streak
Fewer investors meant first-time buyers had a better chance to enter the market.
Builder Confidence Strengthens in the 55+ Housing Market
Optimism has remained solid for three consecutive years.
Top 10 Sources of Softwood Lumber Imports
Financial incentives are growing for foreign companies to export their lumber to the U.S.
Economic Indicators
Economic Improvement Continues Across the Country
Since the first quarter of 2017, an additional 20 metro areas have achieved normal market activity.
Federal Open Market Committee Plans to Shrink Balance Sheet
Measures aim to "foster maximum employment and price stability."
Personal Income and Consumption Expenditures Flatten
The leveling off comes after six consecutive months of growth.
Solid Job Gains in July
The unemployment rate dropped back to its 16-year low of 4.3%.
Lending and Spending
Loan Officer Survey Reveals Easing Lending Standards
The recent findings can serve as reliable indicators of future economic growth.
FHA Financing of New Home Sales Dwindles
The share of FHA-backed mortgages dropped below 12% for the first time since 2014.
Mortgage Rates Tick Up on New Home Purchases
Rates are still below the peak of 4.18% recorded in February.
Private Residential Construction Spending Dips
June was the third consecutive month of decreases after a strong start to the year.
NAHB to weigh in on what rules need to be rescinded or modified.
Written by NAHB, July 24, 2017 07:42am
Despite growing supply-side concerns, housing demand continues to be sustained by healthy job creation and optimistic consumers.
Written by NAHB, July 14, 2017 10:03am
Job Growth Helps Propel Housing Demand
Despite growing supply-side concerns, housing demand continues to be sustained by healthy job creation and optimistic consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 220,000 jobs were created in June, with the unemployment rate increasing slightly to 4.4%. Moreover, home builders and remodelers added almost 116,000 jobs over the last 12 months.
Ongoing job creation has also helped support consumer optimism. The Consumer Confidence Index was up slightly in June, with one submeasure increasing to nearly 33% of respondents indicating jobs are plentiful. Incomes are also rising, with disposable personal income up 2.2% over the last year.
Economic challenges remain anchored on the supply side of the market, with a new softwood anti-dumping duty — in addition to existing countervailing duties — adding to builder costs. Moreover, the share of single-family home builders reporting shortages of framing lumber has increased to 21%.
For a midyear housing and economic market check, watch our construction forecast webinar, featuring NAHB's forecast and commentary from Moody's Mark Zandi and NAR's Danielle Hale.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
Industry Insights
Builders Reporting Shortages of Framing Lumber
Ready-mix concrete and trusses are also increasingly in short supply.
Open Construction Jobs Decline in May
The labor market for construction workers remains tight as home building expands.
Lending and Spending
Residential Fixed Investment Reaches Near-Decade High
Housing's share of GDP holds strong.
Private Residential Construction Spending Declines
The drop in May was the largest in three years.
Mortgage Rates Fall Again
Rates have slipped 18 basis points during the past three months.
Economic Indicators
Employment Gains Accelerated in June
Over the last year, home builders and remodelers have added 115,600 jobs.
Steady Growth in Personal Income
Disposable income in May had the largest monthly increase in two years.
How a Home Purchase Boosts Consumer Spending
NAHB analysis compares expenditures of new home buyers to non-moving home owners.
A compilation of the week's top housing news.
Written by NAHB, July 07, 2017 01:11pm
ECONOMIC NEWS
Marketplace
Tight inventory slows down housing market
Vancouver, Washington, a bedroom community across the Columbia River from Portland, Oregon, has seen its inventory of homes for sale shrink as the housing market picked up after the Great Recession and available homes got snapped up. First-time home buyers and others looking for affordable homes see the area as an alternative to Portland, where rents and home prices have soared in recent years.
HousingWire
Not even housing inventory crisis can stop homebuyers
It seems nothing can stop housing demand, which just hit a new high, according to Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.
MarketWatch
Home-price growth sizzles in May, driving a wedge in the market
Home prices remained hot in May, bolstering owners' equity but locking many would-be buyers out of the market.
CNBC
Mortgage applications rise 1.4%, defying higher rates
The math doesn't exactly make sense, but perhaps the sentiment does. More borrowers applied for home loans last week, even as interest rates made their largest five-day jump since just after the presidential election. Perhaps some thought it might be their last chance at low rates.
NPR
Why isn't the housing market booming the way experts expected?
Interest rates are near historic lows and consumer confidence is high, but the market isn't booming. One reason may be mobility: people moving from state to state is half what it was two decades ago.
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
The Washington Post
Trump's budget plans have already cut financial support for low-cost housing
The pool of private funds available to build or preserve affordable housing in the United States has shrunk by about $1 billion since November, and President Trump's tax plan is to blame — even though it hasn't been adopted yet.
NPR
Affordable housing market hurt by tax overhaul uncertainty
The prospect of Trump's tax overhaul has cut the value of low-income housing tax credits 10 to 15 percent. Funding for units across the U.S. is in question, and less housing will be built as a result.
The Washington Post
A surprising way to increase property values: build affordable housing
Despite the lawsuits, media spotlight and conventional wisdom, affordable housing developments built in poor, heavily black communities can lead to greater racial and income integration, according to new research by Stanford economists.
USA Today
Housing help for Congress? How about for people who really need it?
Just before he departed the House last week to become a Fox News contributor, Utah Republican Jason Chaffetz proposed a housing stipend for members of Congress. "I think a $2,500 housing allowance would be appropriate and a real help to have at least a decent quality of life in Washington," he said. "You shouldn't have to be among the wealthiest of Americans to serve properly in Congress."
HOUSING FINANCE NEWS
National Mortgage News
'If not now, when?' Fed's Powell on GSE reform
Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell, who heads the agency's supervisory committee, called on lawmakers Thursday to move more quickly in crafting legislation to reform the government-sponsored enterprises, saying that "we're almost at a now-or-never moment here." (Subscription may be required.)
American Banker
Will housing finance reform hurt small banks?
The battle over the future of housing finance may turn on whether whatever reforms or replaces Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will bypass small banks, delivering more market share and power to the biggest banks. (Subscription may be required.)
CNBC
Two major lending changes mean it's suddenly easier to get a mortgage
Two major changes in the mortgage market go into effect this month, and both could help millions more borrowers qualify for a home loan. The changes will also add more risk to the mortgage market.
REMODELING
U.S. News & World Report
The pros and cons of live-in home flipping
Mindy Jensen and her husband Carl have made up to $100,000 every two years by buying a house, fixing it up while living in it full time and then selling it for a profit. Call it live-in flipping.
Las Vegas Review-Journal
Universal design makes homes accessible and pleasing
In our 40s, we've accepted the aches and pains that remind us we're no longer 25. That said, the last thing we want to think about is how our health might look in our 60s and 70s, much less what living accommodations we might need to handle our changing physical abilities.
HOUSING POLICY
Politico
Why Washington can't fix the new housing crisis
Donald Trump campaigned on restoring the "American dream," a 1931 metaphor for economic success that has become political shorthand for homeownership. But as president, Trump faces a unique challenge delivering on that promise: The country is in the grip of a new kind of housing crisis that Washington has virtually no power to solve.
LABOR
Construction Dive
Labor Dept. plans revision of stalled overtime rule
The U.S. Department of Labor has asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit to confirm that it is permitted to use salary as a factor in determining which workers are eligible for overtime before it begins a new rulemaking process to amend a pending overtime regulation, according to Bloomberg BNA.
APPRAISALS
Forbes
Appraisers may be holding back the housing market, and that might be okay
I want to warn you from the top, this is a highly speculative post in multiple directions at once. I have a theory as to what is holding back the housing market, and another theory as to why that might be a good thing. There isn't a lot of data to back up either claim, and I wouldn't elevate other above conjecture at this point. But stick with me anyway.
A tightening labor market and a desire to normalize monetary policy led the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee to tighten financial conditions.
Written by NAHB, June 15, 2017 08:25am
Federal Reserve Policy Moves
A tightening labor market and a desire to normalize monetary policy led the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee to tighten financial conditions.
First, the Federal Open Market Committee announced the second rate hike of 2017, increasing the target rate to a range of 1%-1.25%. NAHB expects one additional increase in 2017.
Second, the committee announced plans to reduce its balance sheet, which grew after the Great Recession as part of an accommodative policy known as quantitative easing. The balance sheet, which includes $1.8 trillion in agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, would be reduced in a "gradual and predictable" manner, creating only a slight increase in mortgage rates. The reductions in mortgage-backed securities would start at $4 billion and rise to $20 billion per month over a 12-month period and not result in a complete run-off of holdings. This process would likely begin at the end of 2017.
The Fed's actions are motivated by admittedly conflicting data. Measures of inflation remain below the Fed's 2% objective, but tight labor market conditions risk accelerating prices. For example, the unemployment rate was 4.3% in May and job openings persist at elevated levels, especially within the construction industry. The Fed's moves represent a belief that economic conditions continue to be solid and growth will continue.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
Lending and Spending
Fed Raises Rates, Announces Balance Sheet Reduction Plan
The announced policy is intended to be "gradual and predictable."
Softwood Lumber and OSB Prices Keep Climbing
May's increase pushed the softwood lumber price index to its highest level in nearly 13 years.
Private Residential Construction Spending Slows in April
Declines largely stem from both the multifamily and home improvement sectors.
Home Equity Grows to $23.5 Trillion
More home owners are refinancing to cash out.
Mortgage Rates Fall
Though they remain above the low of 3.54% set in October 2016.
Economic Indicators
Consumer Credit Expands at a Slower Pace
Total household debt has returned to its 2008 peak level.
Pending Sales Slump
April declines were reported in all regions of the U.S. except one.
Employment Situation is Just a Little Disappointing
May's report is unlikely to alter the Fed's overall positive economic impressions.
Consumer Confidence Slightly Decreased in May
Optimism waned for the near-term outlook.
Industry Insights
Regional Patterns Emerge for Age of Construction Workers
Median ages are highest throughout the Northeast, lowest in the Midwest.
Who are NAHB's Associate Members?
Census illustrates the categories of those who are indirectly involved in home building.
Construction Job Openings Jump in April
Recent increases in quits reflect growing competition for workers.
Home Price Appreciation Slowed in March
Since November 2016, prices have been decelerating.
A strong month for home sales in March reinforced the trend of positive housing demand.
Written by NAHB, May 04, 2017 12:57pm
Tight Inventory and Rising Costs
A strong month for home sales in March reinforced the trend of positive housing demand. Sales of new single-family homes grew 15.6% from a year prior, and 5.8% above the previous month's mark—a noteworthy gain, considering February's sales benefitted from the unseasonably warm weather.
March was also an encouraging month for the existing homes market, which saw sales rise 4.4% to its highest pace in 10 years. Inventory of existing homes for sale remains very tight, standing at only a 3.8 months' supply. This is a primary reason why the increases of home prices continue to outpace growth in household incomes.
However, supply-side costs remain on the rise as builders continue reporting scarce availability of labor and lots. And the announcement of an effective 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber could have a significant, negative impact on construction jobs and wages. One-third of the softwood lumber consumed in the U.S. is imported, about 95% of which comes from Canada.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
Sales
March Sales Roar Like a Lion
The surge led to the fastest pace in 10 years.
Pending Sales Pause
The number of signed contracts in March still exceeded the level from a year ago.
House Prices Surpass Pre-Recession Peak
All 20 metro areas had positive home appreciation.
Construction
Duty on Canadian Lumber Will Have Significant Impacts
Thousands of U.S. jobs and hundreds of millions in wages will be lost.
Post-Recession High for Residential Construction Spending
Both multifamily and home improvements experienced big gains in March.
Poll Examines Career Motivations of Young Adults
Most know what they want, but very few say it's a job in construction.
Lending
Cash Sales Dwindle for New Homes
The current share of FHA-backed loans is twice the size of its pre-recession average.
Mortgage Rates Tick Down in March
The decline comes after four consecutive months of increases.
Declining Activity for USDA Single-Family Programs
NAHB study explores the trends of USDA home loans over the past decade.
Economic Indicators
GDP Growth Slows in the 1st Quarter
A second-quarter rebound is a strong possibility.
Homeownership Rate on Stable Ground
Levels increased slightly in every age group.
Consumer Confidence Declined in April
A less-favorable outlook comes after a record-setting month for optimism.
Remodelers Report Broad-Based Confidence
Sentiments about market conditions are the most positive since 2015.
Optimism among single-family builders this month is the strongest it has been since 2005.
Written by NAHB, March 23, 2017 07:15am
Builder Confidence Highest in Nearly 12 Years
Optimism among single-family builders this month is the strongest it has been since 2005. Much of this positive sentiment stems from the widely anticipated reductions of government regulations. A prime example was the recent executive order to roll back the Waters of the United States rule that affects builders' and developers' wetlands permits. However, we can expect some moderation in builder confidence in the months ahead, as interest rates rise and headwinds persist for access to lots and labor.
As expected, last week the Federal Reserve increased the short-term federal funds rate for just the third time in the post-recession era. Much of the Fed's stance is fueled by a strengthening labor market, which added 235,000 jobs last month. As the rate of inflation approaches the 2% target rate, NAHB forecasts two additional rate hikes this year.
Additional price pressures can be seen on the supply side of the industry. Gypsum prices have increased more than 6% in the first two months of 2017, and softwood lumber prices rose almost 5% due to the ongoing lumber trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada. As housing starts continue to rise in the months and years ahead, additional sources of lumber will be required.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
Labor
Job Growth Continues for Builders and Remodelers
Unfilled jobs decreased in numbers as hiring accelerated.
Employment Situation in February: Fits Like a Glove
Labor report aligns well with the Fed's intention to raise interest rates.
Are Young Construction Workers Worth Your Time?
Builder survey reveals the potential effects of hiring a less-experienced crew.
Finance
Home Equity Reaches a New Peak
Real estate holdings climbed more than $1.5 trillion in the past year.
Non-Mortgage Consumer Debt Slowly Grows
Shrinking credit card debt was outweighed by an increase of student and auto loans.
FOMC: Economic Outlook is Meeting Expectations
As anticipated, the Fed recently announced yet another rate increase.
Prices and Production
Solid Gains for Starts
February's pace for single-family homes was the fastest since 2007.
Consumer Price Index Rose Slightly in February
A decline in energy prices partially offset increases in other areas.
Gypsum Products Lead Price Increases Among Building Materials
Price jump for softwood lumber the biggest in four years.
Absorption Flat for Apartments, Jumps for Condos
The median asking rent significantly increased from 2015.
Trends
Builder Confidence Reaches a Cycle High
Optimism hasn't been this strong since 2005.
How 'Green' is the Average Builder?
Single-family builders typically use 10 different green products or practices.
Builders to Confront Labor, Financing Challenges
Written by NAHB, February 09, 2017 07:50am
Builders to Confront Labor, Financing Challenges
More than 80% of builders surveyed say that the scarcity of labor leads the list of challenges for 2017. While employment is growing within the housing industry—adding 128,000 jobs over the last year, and 20,030 in January alone—unfilled construction jobs remain a key supply-side headwind. Housing markets also continue to be held back by a lack of inventory, which has kept pending existing home sales flat for most of the last two years.
The rising cost of credit is another point of concern as the new year begins. Federal Reserve data indicate that demand for multifamily debt and commercial real estate construction and development loans slowed or declined at the end of 2016, perhaps due to rising interest rates. New home sales were also down in December, which some analysts attribute to higher mortgage rates. However, regional data do not fully support that claim.
While rising rates will act as a drag on housing demand going forward, sales were up 12% over the course of 2016 and favorable demographics will cause sales to rise more in 2017, supported by rising wages and job growth.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
Lending
Conventionally Financed New Home Sales Reach 9-Year High
Improved economic conditions help ease lending conditions for conventional loans.
Standards on CRE Loans Tighten as Demand Weakens
However, the pace of tightening has eased slightly after it peaked in mid-2016.
Federal Open Market Committee Meeting – No News is Good News
Economic conditions are right for a faster pace of monetary policy normalization.
Mortgage Rates Rising
Increasing rates too rapidly will likely impact sales.
Sales
Nation Moves Closer to Recovery
House prices are the lone bright spot amid lagging single-family permits and employment numbers.
Home Prices Continued to Rise in November
Tight inventory and high demand pushed prices up at a rapid pace.
Homeownership Rate Bottoming Out?
A 50-year low has been followed by two consecutive quarters of increases.
New Home Sales Grew 12% in 2016
A strong year overall, despite a weak December estimate.
Trends
Residential Construction Employment Growing
January's fast pace is an encouraging sign for 2017.
Record-High 4th Quarter for 55+ Housing Market
Builders report increases in current sales, expected sales and prospective buyers.
Residential Construction Ends 2016 on High Note
Three consecutive monthly increases in spending add momentum at the start of a new year.
Housing Share of GDP Essentially Unchanged
A slight drop brings total contributions to 15.6%.
Economy
Employment Situation Looks Promising
Solid report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics starts off the year.
Consumer Confidence Decreased in January
Optimism about current conditions is overshadowed by low expectations for the future.
First Look at 4th Quarter GDP Growth
Real GDP grew at a 1.9% annual rate, slowing from 3.5% in the previous quarter.
February 06, 2017 09:13am
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Rising Rates a Challenge for 2017
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Economic conditions continue to mirror market reactions to the post-election environment. For example, the 10-year Treasury rate has risen from 1.8% in early November to approximately 2.4% this week. Rates escalated on the prospects of increased growth in a tight labor market. This higher cost of capital has pushed up mortgage rates (30-year fixed-rate mortgages jumped from 3.5% to 4.2% in recent months). And rising rates have already had an affect on pending homes sales which decreased 2.5% in November, 0.4% lower than a year ago.
However, it is important to keep in mind that rising rates are the result of improving economic growth prospects. Similar to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, many market measures are showing post-election strength. For example, consumer confidence increased in December to the highest level since 2001. These trends reflect the broader economic challenge for 2017: a delicate balance of improved growth prospects and rising interest rates.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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December 30, 2016 08:32am
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Builders Confident at Year's End
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Confidence among single-family home builders reached a post-recession high in December, following the election of a new president who promises regulatory relief and increased economic growth. Sales in November also showed positive trends, as new home sales jumped more than 5%—almost 13% higher than the same time last year. Existing home sales also edged up in November, with a four-months' supply of inventory.
New home construction was disappointing in November—down nearly 19% for the month—largely due to an unusual decline for multifamily starts. However, home building in 2016 performed well overall. Single-family starts are up almost 10% for the year, while multifamily starts are down about 4%.
Despite an ongoing scarcity of lots and labor, we anticipate continued growth of residential construction in 2017. Economic growth should also improve next year, compared to the relative weakness experienced in 2016. The full NAHB economic and housing forecast will be unveiled during the NAHB International Builders' Show.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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December 19, 2016 03:32pm
December 16, 2016 08:27am
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Fed Raises Interest Rates
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For just the second time since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve increased its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. While still low, the rate increase continues the path toward higher interest rates and a normalized monetary policy after years of stimulative policy designed to support an economic recovery. The current outlook is for three additional rate hikes in 2017. Economic growth remains modest, though the pace could increase with a fiscal stimulus in the form of deficit-financed tax cuts or government spending increases as the Trump administration takes office.
The move by the Fed is consistent with recent labor market data, which reveal tight employment conditions. The unemployment rate declined to 4.6% in November, as 178,000 jobs were created during the month, of which 19,600 positions were in the home building and remodeling sector. Over 120,000 jobs have been created in residential construction within the last year. While solid employment figures are good news for housing demand, ongoing labor constraints are an inflation risk and a motivation for the Fed to continue raising rates in 2017.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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December 05, 2016 08:31am
December 01, 2016 08:08am
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Construction Surges in October
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Single-family construction starts rallied in October, increasing nearly 11% to an annual rate of 869,000. Meanwhile, multifamily construction in October was also unusually strong. A gradually strengthening economy has led to a broadening of the types of residences being built, as depicted in the third-quarter data for the individual home building sectors:
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Custom home building posted 49,000 starts—its best quarter since the recession.
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Townhouse construction achieved a 12.4% share of the single-family market—near a cycle high.
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Median single-family home size is trending down as more entry-level homes are constructed.
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Rental housing continues to dominate, accounting for 92% of all new multifamily construction.
Overall growth helped support yet another strong level of builder confidence, according to this month's NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. However, the surge from October is likely temporary. Single-family starts are expected to return to trend in the coming months, as will apartment construction while that market seeks a balance between supply and demand.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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November 28, 2016 08:18am
November 21, 2016 08:42am
November 17, 2016 07:14am
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Economic Impact of Trump's Victory
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President-elect Donald Trump will undoubtedly have a profound and lasting impact on economic policy throughout his presidency. Costly business regulations are likely to be reduced or rolled back; rate-reducing, base-broadening, comprehensive tax reform will be under active consideration; and the leadership of the Federal Reserve will change in 2018.
The nation's low unemployment is placing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates, and those rates will influence many future policy decisions. The incoming Administration, in cooperation with a Republican-controlled Congress, will likely pursue policy that will boost GDP growth in the short run. However, if policy changes result in a growing deficit or overheating labor markets, interest rates will rise (faster) in response. Moreover, any policy changes that restrict trade will act as a drag on economic growth.
Interest rates are sure to grow in the years ahead. Smart policy is needed to identify economic efficiencies that will help limit how quickly those rate increases accelerate, thereby supporting housing affordability and improving business lending conditions in the longer term.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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November 03, 2016 07:49am
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Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady
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At the conclusion of its November meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee chose not to increase the federal funds rate. The Fed's comments gave no definitive signal of when the next increase will come, though it is widely anticipated that the first and only rate hike of 2016 will occur in December. While national job gains have been "solid," according to the Fed, concerns remain about weak GDP growth related to soft business investment.
However, housing data continually indicates improving market conditions. The month of September saw:
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Pending home sales rise 2.4% higher than one year ago;
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New single-family home sales grow 3.1% from the previous month; and
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The share of first-time buyers of existing homes increase to 34%.
At just a 4.8 months' supply, inventory of new homes for sale remains tight. Meanwhile, multifamily construction spending reached a historic high in September. And in the remodeling industry, NAHB surveys show 14 consecutive quarters of positive market conditions.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Growing Demand Will Support Expansion in New Home Sales
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The Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates constant last month, as expected, but the next rate hike is likely not far away. NAHB predicts rates will rise at the Federal Open Market Committee's upcoming meeting in December, one year after the first rate increase of this cycle occurred.Despite these expected increases, mortgage rates should remain relatively low throughout the next few years, supporting continued growth in the demand for housing.
Unlike the recent slowing of existing home sales, new home sales should continue to expand. August recorded the second-highest annual rate of new, single-family home sales since the end of the recession. And the low inventory—currently at just a 4.6 months' supply—points to an uptick in construction ahead, consistent with the growing amount of confidence among builders.
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Economic Conditions
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Recent drops in both single-family and home improvement spending overshadowed record-breaking gains for multifamily construction.
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Effective Rate on New Home Loans Continues to Drop
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August marked the seventh consecutive month of falling interest rates.
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Latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Anaysis indicate overall economic growth is accelerating.
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Housing's Share of GDP Holds Steady
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But for the first time in more than two years, residential fixed investment had a negative effect.
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Builder Confidence Matches a Post-Recession High
Written by NAHB, September 23, 2016 06:46am
Builder Confidence Matches a Post-Recession High
Last month's surprising dip in housing starts came as inventory remained tight for both new and existing homes. The seasonally adjusted annual pace of single-family starts in August was down 6% from the previous month, although year-to-date totals for single-family construction are still up 9% from this time last year.
Home building is noticeably down in the South, largely due to flooding that affected many areas of the Gulf Coast. Nationwide, multifamily starts declined 5.4% from July to August. Multifamily development has generally been flat, as the rental apartment market finds a balance between supply and demand.
However, despite persistent shortages of lots and labor — July estimates of unfilled construction sector jobs reached 214,000 — home builder confidence is growing stronger. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for September climbed to a level of 65, matching a post-recession high and suggesting a weak August will be followed by growth in permits and starts.
Business Conditions
Builder Confidence Surges in September
Upward momentum expected to built into 2017.
A High Point for Large, For-Rent Multifamily Buildings
Completions in 50-plus unit buildings have skyrocketed 284% since 2011.
Building Materials Prices Continue to Climb
Though overall producer prices remain flat, lumber and gypsum rose sharply in August.
Sales and Contract Prices Per Square Foot in 2015
Prices for spec homes in the Pacific and New England regions far exceed the national average.
Housing Trends
Home Equity Grows Even as Homeownership Declines
Household holdings of real estate in the second quarter totaled $22.29 trillion.
New Single-Family Homes Have More Bedrooms
Share of new homes with four or more bedrooms in 2015 increased to 47%.
Concentration of Large Builders in Metropolitan Markets
Major housing markets have become more concentrated since the trough of the housing crisis.
Economic Insights
Housing Starts Pause in August
Single-family and multifamily posted declines after several months of gains.
Consumer Price Index Posts Strong Gain in August
Rising costs of medical care largely contributed to the increase in core inflation.
Consumer Credit Outstanding: What's Driving Auto Loan Growth?
The soaring auto loan market is drawing the attention of financial regulators.
Surprising Labor Market Data Pauses the Fed
Written by NAHB, June 17, 2016 07:38am
Surprising Labor Market Data Pauses the Fed
A weak labor market report clearly influenced the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady this week. The Fed noted that job gains have slowed and business investment has been soft. Housing, however, remains a bright spot as the economy picks up speed entering the second quarter.
Industry Insights
Who are NAHB's Builder Members?
The latest member census reveals that the median dollar volume for builders in 2015 was the highest on record.
Market Share of the Nation's Top Builders
The total number of closings among each of the top 100 U.S. builders in 2015 ranged from 365 to 36,736.
One-Person Residential Construction Firms Total 1.7 Million
Though large in numbers, these contractors typically pull in modest receipts.
Lending Trends
Non-Bank Institutions Account for Nearly Half of All Home Loans
The share of mortgage originations from independent mortgage companies is the largest among all lender types.
Home Mortgage and Multifamily Residential Debt Expand
Rising real estate values outpaced increasing mortgage debt, resulting in overall home equity growth.
Consumer Credit Outstanding Grows on Auto, Student Loans
Outstanding non-revolving credit now stands at $2.65 trillion.
Macroeconomic Indicators
Increasing Energy Prices Drive Producer Price Index Higher
May's upsurge was twice the size of April's.
Last Month's Employment: All Systems No
April was a bad month, May was a shocker, and June is a non-starter.
Construction Employment Drops as Job Openings Persist
The count of total jobs in the home building sector has declined for two straight months.
Personal Consumption Expenditure Jumps
April's increase was the biggest since August 2009.
Private Residential Construction Spending Stalls
Both multifamily and home improvements declined in April, while single-family spending was virtually unchanged.
Consumer Perspectives
Consumer Confidence Slipped Again
But expectations improved for business conditions six months from now.
New House Price Data Show Why Costs are a Problem
Nearly one-third of consumers expect to pay less than $150,000 for a home, while just 6% of new homes fall in that range.
As the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) celebrates National Homeownership Month in June, builders continue to demand affordable housing for all Americans, calling for sensible reforms to burdensome regulations that increase the cost of housing.
Written by NAHB, June 09, 2016 08:15am
As the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) celebrates National Homeownership Month in June, builders continue to demand affordable housing for all Americans, calling for sensible reforms to burdensome regulations that increase the cost of housing.
“The aggressive over-regulation of the housing industry is putting the American Dream of safe and affordable housing at risk,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill.
In May, NAHB released a study, Government Regulation in the Price of a New Home, which showed that on average, government regulations account for 24.3% of the final price of a new single-family home. In fact, the regulatory costs for an average single-family home went from $65,224 in 2011 to $84,671 in 2016 – a 29.8% increase in five years.
“Regulators at all levels of government – local, state and federal – must understand that their actions have real consequences,” said NAHB Chief Executive Officer Jerry Howard. “The cost of regulation in the price of a new home is rising more than twice as fast as the average American’s ability to pay for it. That is simply not sustainable.”
NAHB has been fighting back against costly regulations that fail to meet their intended goals, including the Department of Labor’s new overtime rule that was implemented without considering its impact on small businesses, consumers, workers and the economy.
The 100% increase to the salary threshold for overtime eligibility will hit the home building industry particularly hard and harm housing affordability. It will reduce job-advancement opportunities and the hours of full-time construction supervisors, leading to construction delays, increased costs and less affordable housing options for consumers.
“Common sense reforms to the regulatory approval process would open the doors of homeownership to more Americans across the country,” Brady said.
During National Homeownership Month in June, and throughout the year, NAHB and its 700 state and local affiliates work hard to make affordable housing a reality and a priority to our nation’s leadership.
“Homeownership remains a core American value to consumers across the country,” Brady said. “In addition to building stronger communities, homeownership provides a solid foundation for family and personal achievement. It is critical that we keep this dream within reach, and not price out buyers with needless overregulation.”
Latest News & Information for Remodeling Industry
March 30, 2016 03:55pm
OSHA Rule Finalized for Silica Dust Exposure
OSHA issued the final silica rule to limit exposure to crystalline silica, found in many common building materials. Popular remodeling jobs like kitchens and baths that involve cutting tile, bricks and other materials containing crystalline silica over the new limit will likely be impacted by this new regulation. Remodelers will be required to use specified engineering controls like water or ventilation and provide respiratory protection for many common remodeling tasks.
March 31 Deadline to Recertify Training for EPA Lead Paint Rule
Though NAHB continues to beat the drum on the importance of a reliable, easy-to-use and inexpensive way to test for the presence of lead-based paint in walls and trim as key to the Environmental Protection Agency’s Lead Renovation, Repair and Painting rule, thousands of remodelers still face a March 31 recertification deadline. These remodelers are required to get refresher training either in-person or online through the new online class option.
Marketing In Your Local Media Market for Remodelers
You don’t have to spend the most money on advertising to beat the competition - just spend a little time on public relations. Former NAHB Remodelers Chair Robert Criner shares his keys to effective media relations that include recognizing the right opportunities and knowing who to contact.
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NAHB estimates 55,000 total tear-downs for 2015 single-family home starts. Anecdotal evidence suggests that tear-down construction has become a significant modus operandi in some parts of the country. Due either to local topographic or political constraints, replacing older structures with new ones can potentially be an important option.
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CAPS instructor and remodeler, Vince Butler, explains how he prepped an office above the garage for an in-law suite conversion. Here are 21 design ideas that even an expert should have included in the original office remodel to ensure a smooth transformation into his mother's living space.
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Home owner seminars are evolving for a clientele who wants information ondemand and online. Professional Remodeler interviews remodelers for tips on organizing seminars to maximize leads and sales force resources.
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A possible solution to the widespread labor shortage: Restock the low inventory of laborers with a new group of fresh (young) faces. 38 high school students in Montana are building a full-sized, two-story, four-bedroom house all on their own (with the oversight of Flathead Building Association members and skilled subcontractors).
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Membership Saves You Money
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Don't waste your limited time and resources on leads that don't pan out. The goal of this webinar is to give attendees the information they need so that they never again go on a sales call with an unqualified prospect. NAHB Remodelers members get an additional $5 off registration.
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Happy clients and beautiful homes - that's what it's all about. Join us as we turn up the volume in May to celebrate all things remodeling. We've created public relations, social media and other promotional resources for you to use during National Home Remodeling Month, saving you money on your marketing budget.
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Knowing how much the competition is bringing in can help you better gauge your financial performance and further enhance your industry intellect. NAHB is confidentially surveying remodeler members to provide them with real-market benchmarks they can use to compare their business to others, pinpoint improvement opportunities and set budget targets. Survey participants will receive a free copy of the final report, the 2017 Remodelers’ Cost of Doing Business Study.
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Join Professional Remodeler and industry peers for this exciting networking event. The inaugural GenX-Change event is in Dallas, April 13-15 and will provide a day and a half of interactive content for attendees to learn from those who have succeeded by taking risks to grow their businesses. The Professional Remodeler 40 under 40 winners will also be honored at this event. NAHB Remodelers members get $100 off the $325 registration cost.
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Give your clients the best during foundation, framing and exterior finishing when you better understand selection criteria, properties of materials, application techniques and the long-term performance of each system. Building Technology: Structures and Exterior Finishes Live Online will be offered in webinar format from 1:00-3:00 PM ET over three consecutive Tuesdays April 5, 12 and 19. Register today!
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NAHB has formed a strategic alliance with Houzz Inc., the online platform for home building, renovation and design, to help NAHB members use Houzz’s technology and marketing capabilities to connect with a community of 35 million users. Visit the Houzz NAHB member portal to create or update your free professional profile, which includes a verified NAHB badge. Members also have access to the Houzz concierge for assistance.
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The 2016 IBS Show in Las Vegas was described by many as the Best Show Yet!
March 30, 2016 08:59am
IBS 2016 was "Awesome," "Exciting," Unbelievable."
Check out IBS 2016!
Make plans right now to attend IBS 2017 in Orlando, Florida, January 10-12, 2017!
Weekly News Updates from NAHB
March 28, 2016 08:31am
NAHB has launched the Defender of Housing award to honor our senators, representatives and state elected leadership who understand the importance of the housing industry and take stands to help it grow.
Written by NAHB Now, February 15, 2016 10:08am
NAHB has launched the Defender of Housing award to honor our senators, representatives and state elected leadership who understand the importance of the housing industry and take stands to help it grow.
HBAs are encouraged to think about the contributions of their legislators who have demonstrated support for home building, remodeling, development and the contributions we make to the economy and submit an application.
Nominated by state and local HBA leaders, each candidate is reviewed by a select group of NAHB Federal Government Affairs Committee members before being chosen for this national award. And each legislator honored helps raise the profile of the state or local HBA making the submission.
Nominations are now being accepted and close April 29. Award winners will be announced in late May. For additional information, contact Alyssa Rajabi.
NAHB Chairman Ed Brady and First Vice Chairman Granger MacDonald this week conducted two days of meetings with Democratic and Republican leaders in both chambers of Congress to urge lawmakers to pursue a strong national agenda for housing
Written by NAHB Now, February 12, 2016 09:58am
NAHB Chairman Ed Brady and First Vice Chairman Granger MacDonald this week conducted two days of meetings with Democratic and Republican leaders in both chambers of Congress to urge lawmakers to pursue a strong national agenda for housing. The NAHB Senior Officers reiterated the importance of housing and homeownership to the economy and stressed that a vibrant housing market is necessary in order to maintain robust job and economic growth.
From left, NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy
and NAHB First VIce Chairman Granger MacDonald
On Capitol Hill, Brady and MacDonald met with several influential lawmakers from both sides of the political aisle, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.); Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.); House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.); House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.); House Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers (R-Ky.); House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas); and Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Discussions focused on the need to enact policies that would provide a stable and affordable supply of credit for home buyers, home builders and rental housing and to reduce or eliminate unnecessary regulations to make homeownership more affordable for firefighters, teachers, police officers and other middle-class families. Lawmakers were also urged to address soaring health care costs by allowing the use of health reimbursement arrangements and to adopt sensible workforce development and immigration policy that will help our industry fill open jobs and boost our nation’s economy.
Amidst this presidential election year, when so much hangs in the balance for the housing industry, these meetings will help to lay the groundwork for a successful Bringing Housing Home™ NAHB Legislative Conference during the week of March 7-11 when our members will hold in-district meetings with their lawmakers.
Builders are encouraged to log on to BringingHousingHome.com now and register to attend the industry’s most important lobbying event of the year.
For more information on Bringing Housing Home, email Michael Persaud at NAHB or call him at 800-368-5242 x8542.
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