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State & National Updates
Eye on the Economy

Economic Impact of Trump's Victory

President-elect Donald Trump will undoubtedly have a profound and lasting impact on economic policy throughout his presidency. Costly business regulations are likely to be reduced or rolled back; rate-reducing, base-broadening, comprehensive tax reform will be under active consideration; and the leadership of the Federal Reserve will change in 2018.

 

The nation's low unemployment is placing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates, and those rates will influence many future policy decisions. The incoming Administration, in cooperation with a Republican-controlled Congress, will likely pursue policy that will boost GDP growth in the short run. However, if policy changes result in a growing deficit or overheating labor markets, interest rates will rise (faster) in response. Moreover, any policy changes that restrict trade will act as a drag on economic growth.

 

Interest rates are sure to grow in the years ahead. Smart policy is needed to identify economic efficiencies that will help limit how quickly those rate increases accelerate, thereby supporting housing affordability and improving business lending conditions in the longer term. 

–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz

 

Employment

 

Construction Job Openings Continue to Rise

Access to labor remains a top business challenge for builders.

 

Employment Situation in October – No Surprise

Solid labor market report might convince the Fed to raise interest rates next month. 

 

Lending

 

Past-Due Mortgages at a Post-Recession Low

Share of delinquent loans has fallen significantly from its peak set in 2010.

 

Non-Mortgage Consumer Debt Accelerates

Both revolving and non-revolving credit are on the rise.

 

Mortgage Market Dynamics Largely Improve

Majority of loan officers report easing lending standards. 

 

Sales

 

Housing Affordability Edges Lower

Home prices appreciate enough to offset a small decline of interest rates.

 

Economic Recovery Continues, but Variations Persist

Solid gains for home prices, while permits in most markets are lagging. 

 

Strong 3rd Quarter for 55+ Housing Market

Builders report continued confidence despite declining production and demand.

 

Trends

 

Two-Thirds of New Homes in New England Include Decks

Among all U.S. homes started in 2015, 64% included porches and 23% included decks.

 

Big Decline of New High-End Homes in 2015

Number of new homes for sale priced at more than $1 million dropped nearly 50% from the previous year.