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Builders Confident at Year's End
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Confidence among single-family home builders reached a post-recession high in December, following the election of a new president who promises regulatory relief and increased economic growth. Sales in November also showed positive trends, as new home sales jumped more than 5%—almost 13% higher than the same time last year. Existing home sales also edged up in November, with a four-months' supply of inventory.
New home construction was disappointing in November—down nearly 19% for the month—largely due to an unusual decline for multifamily starts. However, home building in 2016 performed well overall. Single-family starts are up almost 10% for the year, while multifamily starts are down about 4%.
Despite an ongoing scarcity of lots and labor, we anticipate continued growth of residential construction in 2017. Economic growth should also improve next year, compared to the relative weakness experienced in 2016. The full NAHB economic and housing forecast will be unveiled during the NAHB International Builders' Show.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Fed Raises Interest Rates
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For just the second time since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve increased its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. While still low, the rate increase continues the path toward higher interest rates and a normalized monetary policy after years of stimulative policy designed to support an economic recovery. The current outlook is for three additional rate hikes in 2017. Economic growth remains modest, though the pace could increase with a fiscal stimulus in the form of deficit-financed tax cuts or government spending increases as the Trump administration takes office.
The move by the Fed is consistent with recent labor market data, which reveal tight employment conditions. The unemployment rate declined to 4.6% in November, as 178,000 jobs were created during the month, of which 19,600 positions were in the home building and remodeling sector. Over 120,000 jobs have been created in residential construction within the last year. While solid employment figures are good news for housing demand, ongoing labor constraints are an inflation risk and a motivation for the Fed to continue raising rates in 2017.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Construction Surges in October
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Single-family construction starts rallied in October, increasing nearly 11% to an annual rate of 869,000. Meanwhile, multifamily construction in October was also unusually strong. A gradually strengthening economy has led to a broadening of the types of residences being built, as depicted in the third-quarter data for the individual home building sectors:
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Custom home building posted 49,000 starts—its best quarter since the recession.
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Townhouse construction achieved a 12.4% share of the single-family market—near a cycle high.
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Median single-family home size is trending down as more entry-level homes are constructed.
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Rental housing continues to dominate, accounting for 92% of all new multifamily construction.
Overall growth helped support yet another strong level of builder confidence, according to this month's NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. However, the surge from October is likely temporary. Single-family starts are expected to return to trend in the coming months, as will apartment construction while that market seeks a balance between supply and demand.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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