
State & National Updates Archives for 2016-12
Eye on the Economy
Builders Confident at Year's End |
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Confidence among single-family home builders reached a post-recession high in December, following the election of a new president who promises regulatory relief and increased economic growth. Sales in November also showed positive trends, as new home sales jumped more than 5%—almost 13% higher than the same time last year. Existing home sales also edged up in November, with a four-months' supply of inventory.
New home construction was disappointing in November—down nearly 19% for the month—largely due to an unusual decline for multifamily starts. However, home building in 2016 performed well overall. Single-family starts are up almost 10% for the year, while multifamily starts are down about 4%.
Despite an ongoing scarcity of lots and labor, we anticipate continued growth of residential construction in 2017. Economic growth should also improve next year, compared to the relative weakness experienced in 2016. The full NAHB economic and housing forecast will be unveiled during the NAHB International Builders' Show.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Monday Morning Briefing
Economics
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Builders hopeful Trump will follow through on his pledge to cut regulations.
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NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz provides an analysis.
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Single-family production is up 9.6% year to date.
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Inside Washington
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Illinois Builder Ed Brady Being Considered as FHA Commissioner |
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Outgoing 2016 NAHB chairman in discussions with Trump transition team.
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Key housing tax credit to be included as part of efforts to revamp the tax code.
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Eye on the Economy
Fed Raises Interest Rates |
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For just the second time since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve increased its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. While still low, the rate increase continues the path toward higher interest rates and a normalized monetary policy after years of stimulative policy designed to support an economic recovery. The current outlook is for three additional rate hikes in 2017. Economic growth remains modest, though the pace could increase with a fiscal stimulus in the form of deficit-financed tax cuts or government spending increases as the Trump administration takes office.
The move by the Fed is consistent with recent labor market data, which reveal tight employment conditions. The unemployment rate declined to 4.6% in November, as 178,000 jobs were created during the month, of which 19,600 positions were in the home building and remodeling sector. Over 120,000 jobs have been created in residential construction within the last year. While solid employment figures are good news for housing demand, ongoing labor constraints are an inflation risk and a motivation for the Fed to continue raising rates in 2017.
–NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Monday Morning Briefing
Housing Finance
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The nationwide rise in home prices means buyers in 2,948 counties will see increases.
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Outlook Gloomy for Tax Extenders, Including Energy Incentives |
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Popular temporary tax provisions are set to expire this month; it appears unlikely Congress will renew them.
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Legislation would allow home builders to help their employees cover rising health care costs.
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Eye on the Economy
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